Middle East:A Demographic time bomb
A rather depressing editorial item from the Financial Times, which you may need to register for to read, on the demographic time bomb that is the Middle East.
As a special report in the Financial Times this week spelled out, up to two-thirds of Arabs are under 25 and more than one in four have no job, in a deeply troubled region with the world’s worst employment rate. A World Bank study on the Middle East and North Africa five years ago reckoned the region would need to create 80m-100m jobs by 2020.
The future may become very bleak, not only for the region but for the world, if the generational transformation needed to meet this challenge is not attempted with at least some success. That sea change is not just about economics.
The editorial considers 3 overarching main factors:-
- woeful education system,
- political autocracy, and
- the absence of the rule of law
and points out that they are all related.
The FT suggests that through improvements in education, investment which in turn creates the rule of law and finally drives representative government.
The FT concludes with this paragraph, which is chilling in what it might mean:-
That is the root of it all: the scale of advance the region needs is not possible while despotism persists.
If Adam has it right the FT is suggesting that the problems the Middle East faces, and thus the world, require significant regime change in the region to achieve a solution.
It is probable that arriving at the endpoint will thus be painful, fraught with issues and is highly likely to involve significant loss of life – once embarked upon this process will be impossible to stop – the genie will be well and truly out of the bottle.
Adam is convinced of one thing though, education -real education is the key, not rote learning of the Koran and interpretations which reflect ancient tribal prejudices.
Strange as it may seem now, it is possible that history may treat George W Bush’s desire to bring democracy to Iraq and the region was correct in objective, but hopelessly flawed in execution – because of an inability to deliver comprehensive delivery of all parts of the equation necessary to ensure success.
Compare to the “woeful education system” and the “political autocracy”, not to mention too many legislated rules/laws that substitute political desires for sound educational policies and practices throughout the public education system in the United States. Notice that students in third world countries, long denied educational opportunities, actively participate in the learning process whenever such opportunities are presented. Compare to students in the United States who perceive schooling as being forced against their will, and who, subsequently, don’t extend much effort in the learning process.
Read The Twilight’s Last Gleaming On Public Education, a portion of which may be viewed online by contacting the publisher at http://www.Xlibris.com, clicking on their Bookstore link, then Searching by title for an insightful understanding of American public education systems. The author presents an intriguing and socially relevant story that strives to leave the reader with a sense of time well invested in the reading of this story. Check it out for yourself.