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Tim Selwyn on frottage à blog

May 4, 2009
tags: , , , ,

Many of Adam’s visitors will have read about Mt Albert at Kiwiblog, No Minister and Whaleoil – to name but 3.

Adam found this post from Tim Selwyn interesting.

The title of the post was interesting as well.

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from → Blogosphere, New Zealand, Politics, Uncategorized
2 Comments
  1. adamsmith1922 permalink*
    May 4, 2009 8:58 pm

    Ed

    I think your analysis is sound, probably because it is close to mine.

    National need to understand whether their party polling was party driven, or Ravi driven.

    I also think at the electorate level there was a huge Helen factor.

    I think Norman over estimates factors such as left and Waterview.

    if someone came out and said your rates/taxers will be less if there is no Waterview tunnel then much of Norman’s support will go.

    Overall Norman may have made a mistake in standing

  2. Ed Snack permalink
    May 4, 2009 8:43 pm

    The Snack does not fancy himself as an astute picker of by-election results, but I just don’t get Tumeke’s certainty that Shearer will win. I have lived in Mt Albert, and certainly around where I lived it would be a close race, unless the memories of Helen Clark have faded, in which case Labour might do better.I don’t see Boscawen getting a lot of traction either.

    This is a seat that I see as proto-blue; they mightn’t change quite yet, but the area has changed from the old Mt Albert. It used to be a run-down, cheaper Mt Eden, blue collar and functionaries. Not now, gentrification hit Mt Albert hard, prices rose in Balmoral/Sandringham as quick or quicker than almost anywhere in Auckland. There was a large influx of migrants, very Indian (or sub-continent perhaps) dominated, small business people. Not always blue, but probably for now they are. The old cheap areas exist in bits, but are they enough, and is Shearer the man to appeal ? He’s not local, really, and maybe just too urbane.

    Tumeke’s got the Green position right, Farrar and Whale are playing it up, but the greens don’t have a snowball’s in Mt Albert. Parachuting in Norman won’t impress I suspect, and all Labour has to do is wheel out some videos of Delahaunty and Bradford on the stump and that’s Russell stuffed.

    Nope, for what it’s worth, and that’s probably not much I suspect, I pick this very close; maybe even National by a nose. It will take a good candidate and a good campaign. Ravi appeals as a local, but does he have the appeal, really ? That I’m not sure, but choosing Lee risks everyone looking like carpet baggers, perhaps there’s safety in numbers.

    I’d love to see some polling, just to see if my instincts are even close to correct this time.

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