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A nightmare poll

10/10/2008

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Scoopit!

The Roy Morgan poll for early October is out.

The results are markedly at variance with those of other polls. Based on this poll we could be looking at a 4th term Labour government.

Were the others fairy tales as Helen Clark so derided them or is this one a rogue poll.

Roy Morgan poll - 10 October 2008

Roy Morgan poll - 10 October 2008

Adam is not a statistician, but the Morgan poll shows the Greens and Act appearing to benefit rather than Labour from a downturn in National support.

The poll was prior to Prefu and the Tax package.

Is there a significant methodology difference?

Could it be that Morgan has arrived at a valid answer?

Adam was always worried that somehow Labour might get back in.

On this basis, if Winston got a seat we might see a Labour, Green, NZ First, Peter Dunne regime.

Such a regime would be far more left. Our economy would be tanked with the Greens having a role, as their approach seems to be spend with no regard as to where money comes from to finance things.

Is Adam having a bad dream?

3 Comments
  1. adamsmith1922 permalink*
    10/10/2008 14:37

    As you say the US election is more interesting, as is Mandelson’s return to the British cabinet.

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  2. 10/10/2008 14:29

    No cause for you to panic (or me to celebrate) quite yet Adam. It could very well, as you note, be a rogue poll. If the next one shows National losing support heavily to ACT and Green, then you can panic. In the meantime, the US election is so much more interesting…

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