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A nightmare poll


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The Roy Morgan poll for early October is out.

The results are markedly at variance with those of other polls. Based on this poll we could be looking at a 4th term Labour government.

Were the others fairy tales as Helen Clark so derided them or is this one a rogue poll.

Roy Morgan poll - 10 October 2008

Roy Morgan poll - 10 October 2008

Adam is not a statistician, but the Morgan poll shows the Greens and Act appearing to benefit rather than Labour from a downturn in National support.

The poll was prior to Prefu and the Tax package.

Is there a significant methodology difference?

Could it be that Morgan has arrived at a valid answer?

Adam was always worried that somehow Labour might get back in.

On this basis, if Winston got a seat we might see a Labour, Green, NZ First, Peter Dunne regime.

Such a regime would be far more left. Our economy would be tanked with the Greens having a role, as their approach seems to be spend with no regard as to where money comes from to finance things.

Is Adam having a bad dream?

  1. adamsmith1922 permalink*
    10/10/2008 14:37

    As you say the US election is more interesting, as is Mandelson’s return to the British cabinet.


  2. 10/10/2008 14:29

    No cause for you to panic (or me to celebrate) quite yet Adam. It could very well, as you note, be a rogue poll. If the next one shows National losing support heavily to ACT and Green, then you can panic. In the meantime, the US election is so much more interesting…



  1. Views on the poll « Homepaddock

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