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Marae Digipoll result not good for Labour

19/10/2008

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Scoopit!

From the TVNZ website on the latest Marae Digipoll findings regarding the Maori seats. No major surprises as regards the Maori Party cementing it’s hold:-

A Marae Digi-Poll shows Maori Party MP Te Ururoa Flavell scoring almost 73% support in the Waiariki seat he currently holds.

His Labour rival Mita Ririnui’s polling just over 22%.

There’s a similar picture in the Te Tai Hauauru seat held by Maori Party Co-leader Tariana Turia.

She’s on almost 78% support compared to Labour’s Errol Mason who’s polling just above 15%.

The Maori Party is also ahead of Labour on the Party vote in both electorates.

Adam found this comment of interest:-

Meanwhile, support for the government has taken a dive among Maori voters according to the latest Marae-Digipoll survey.

The poll reveals 39% of Maori questioned would vote Labour if an election were to be held today.

That’s down from 52% in the survey at the start of the year.

So Labour does not have the support of a majority of Maori voters on the Maori roll.

Then the article goes on:-

Helen Clark remains the front-runner in the preferred Prime Minister stakes with more than 30% support, down from 45%,

So HC’s support is way down,.

Then we get to the comment in the article which try as he might, Adam does not understand how the comment was arrived at based on the content of the article:-

and even if Maori are less satisfied with Labour than they were at the year’s start, there are yet more signs Maori Party supporters would prefer a post-election deal with Labour and strongly oppose cutting a National deal.

This article carries a Reuters tag, not TVNZ.

Adam finds that conclusion very strange. If Adam was a cynical old sod he might think that Labour’s band of little media helpers had intervened here.

Unfortunately Adam has not seen any fuller figures or other analysis.

It may well be the case that we are likely to see an overhang of an increased size at this election, but is it necessarily the case that the Maori Party will go with Labour, especially after seeing these poll results.

Thus the election hots up and the potential outcome may well have become murkier.

One Comment
  1. 19/10/2008 20:05

    I guess what was meant was that MP supporters will vote either MP or Labour, with Labour obviously being the second choice. But between Labour or National, Labour is that choice, meaning MP supporters prefer a coalition deal with Labour despite rejecting it for the MP and eating into the Labour vote.

    One in five Maori support the MP – thats including Maori in the general electorate as well.
    The poll reveals 39% of Maori questioned would vote Labour if an election were to be held today
    < this poll had it at 52% – with 20% voting MP – and that was Maori in general electorates as well. Thats a quick drop unless the Maori polled in this latert poll are all from the Maori electorate. ALso Im this electorate 36% support the Maori party, jut a few percentage points less than Labour’s support.

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