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China in 2040


Anti-Dismal discusses an article by Robert Fogel on the potential within the Chinese economy by 2040.

It would be interesting to try and understand what the repercussions for other countries within the Asia-Pacific region will be.

For example what are the opportunities/threats for New Zealand?

  1. Ed Snack permalink
    14/01/2010 08:47

    Predictions, as they say, are difficult, particularly about the future. To expand, linear extrapolations are all very well in the short term, but rarely hold for the long term.

    However there is no doubt that China will become even more of an economic giant over the coming decades. Maybe then people will see US hegemony for the benevolent force that it was.


  2. 13/01/2010 17:35

    Given the the level of wealth being forecast by Fogel and the size of the market in China it can only be good for New Zealand. The export potential is huge.


  3. Bruce Hamilton permalink
    13/01/2010 17:04

    I know chemistry probably makes your eyes water as much as economics does to me. Last year China set several new benchmarks in chemical IP. That includes new chemical patents increasing by 2400% over the last decade. and is now world leader in the number of new chemical patents. As the article notes, China could, if it wishes, now look to Asia ( rather than USA and Europe ) for partners.

    Assuming I link correctly, this easy-to-read article from the US magazine “Chemical and Engineering News”, titled “China Ascendant” nicely complements the above article.

    China also has a major strategy for a strong presence in space, which again will be the new frontier for technology that trickles down to us earthbound clowns.


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