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Ardern the vote winner?

March 3, 2017

Ardern’s fan club push the line that the anointed one is a vote winner for Labour and that she will attract voters to the Labour fold. Indeed, Little and Ardern are dubbed the ‘dream team’ by at least one reporter who has drunk the Kool Aid.

Yet if we look at the 2011 and 2014 results  for Auckland Central what do we find?

                                 2011                 2014

Candidate

Kaye – National    43.8%              44.2%

Ardern – Labour    41.7%              42.1%

Party  

National                  42%                  44.8%

Labour                     25%                   21.6%

So Ardern marginally increased her personal vote in 2014 against 2011, but lost ground in the all important party vote. Yet the ability to increase the party vote is a pre-requisite in this writer’s opinion.if Ardern is to materially improve the propsects for Labour at the election this year. Based on this analysis suggests the proposition that Ardern is a votegetter is yet to be proven.

 

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