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David Farrar comments on TVNZ’s Colmar Brunton poll

10/12/2017

Released this morning, DPF comments:-

The first post-election One News Colmar Brunton poll is out and despite forming Government, Labour has not received a boost in the polls.

In 1999 the incoming Labour Government got an 11% bump in the polls, as did the incoming National Government in 2008.

The lack of any boost to Labour is probably due to a combination of two factors. The first is that there was no clear vote for change as happened in 1999 and 2008. The second is they have had a pretty shambolic start to Government.

The party vote results are:

1 National 46% (+1.6% from election)

2 Labour 39% (+2.1%)

3 Greens 7% (+0.7%)

4 NZ First 5%  (-2.2%)

He finishes up :-

National of course can’t be complacent. This shows there is considerable goodwill remaining for National and Bill English. The challenge is to both show the failings of the new Government, but also remind people of a positive alternative.

Along the way he comments succinctly on Toby Manhire’s polling prediction at The Spinoff.      Manhire got it wrong.

Labour are failing dramatically. Ardern’s personal spin machine is working overtime what with the Vogue photoshoot, an opinion piece in the FT the NZ media grinding out endless hagiographic stories. Indeed one might argue that Ardern’s personal spin machine is often indistinguishable from the NZ media.

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