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Gresham College: Prof. Douglas McWilliams – Globalisation and Public Policy : #5/6 – Can The Euro Survive Globalisation

11/01/2019

About this series

Professor McWilliams’ first year of lectures as Gresham Professor of Commerce aimed mainly at setting out the building blocks of the new economic geography that is likely to emerge from the world’s greatest ever economic event, the industrialisation of the emerging economies.

For the second year, the focus shifts to some of the public policy impacts of this. The lectures deal particularly with inequality and with government spending. But they also look at the impact on the euro as well, with the economic changes affecting the different Eurozone member states deferentially.

https://youtu.be/1sYKo6TQpIE

About this lecture

The euro was set up as part of European integration and to provide an alternative currency to the dollar. But the financial and economic crisis has exposed serious flaws, and the rapidly internationalising renminbi now looks to be a better bet as the most likely alternative currency to the dollar. The lecture asks whether the euro can survive the economic impact of globalisation, which impinges differentially on the different European economies. The euro was set up as part of European integration and to provide an alternative currency to the dollar. But the financial and economic crisis has exposed serious flaws, and the rapidly internationalising renminbi now looks to be a better bet as the most likely alternative currency to the dollar. The lecture asks whether the euro can survive the economic impact of globalisation, which impinges differentially on the different European economies.

Professor Douglas McWilliams

Douglas McWilliams was the Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce from 2012 to 2014. He is chief executive and founder of Cebr, one of the UK’s leading specialist economics consultancies.

Professor McWilliams has had a career specialising in economic forecasting and analysis. He currently advises 25 of the FTSE companies, most of the UK’s top retailers, four out of the UK’s top ten legal firms and some of the leading firms of accountants, as well as being the economic adviser to the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW).

He has received five awards for best forecaster for the UK in 2011. In addition to this, an analysis by CityWire has concluded that Cebr and the OECD have had the best forecasting track record over the past eight years, a period which, of course, includes the financial crisis.

Professor McWilliams’ interest in international economics has led to his launching quarterly economic insight reports for ICAEW for the Middle East in early 2011, South East Asia in autumn 2011 and the first quarterly report for China in Beijing in March 2012.

His career has focussed on making economics relevant to commerce, first with the Confederation of British Industry, then as Chief Economist for IBM UK. He then returned to the Confederation of British Industry as the Chief Economic Adviser which he followed by setting up his own economic consultancy, Cebr, in 1993.  Cebr is now one of the most highly respected sources of business advice and research.

Besides forecasting, his interests have ranged widely – from being the first to apply option pricing theory to the economics of safety, to new approaches to economic impact assessment for transport which have now been incorporated in the official Department for Transport guidance. He is also famed for his communication skills, and is one of the most regularly quoted of the leading economists.

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