NZ Herald:Latest DigiPoll
The NZ Herald Digi Poll confirms the results of several other polls.Keeping Stock had a post, as did the Hive, who also noted how John Armstrong was wriggling to find a reason to re-interpret the poll.
Adam was looking at the analysis in the Herald and noted the nature of the National and Labour trend lines, as shown in the Herald graphic above.
Labour has not been above 40% since July 2007 and the trend would appear to be on a downward incline.
National has had a bumpier ride, but the long term trend appears to be upward, but the overall trend has been punctuated by a number of spikes and dips, but with the exception of November 2007, National have been above 50% since September 2007.
The current poll shows a distinct widening from the previous poll.
The Standard of course places it’s faith in the TV3 poll, yet Adam seems to recall that Labour’s own polling alluded to in the Guyon Espiner/Mike Williams Agenda interview suggests that the TV3 poll is the aberrant one.
The Standard takes exception to the Herald saying National is pulling away, yet the graph shows precisely that. In addition, if we assume that National could reach an accommodation with ACT and United Future they could add at least 2 more MPs to their total.
On this poll, Labour, the Greens, Maori Party and Winston First do not have sufficient to install the regime again. However, it is still a long way to the election.
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The Inquiring Mind 
You’re not in denial are you Tane?
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Adam, we never said we placed faith in the TV3 poll. If you read our commentary of the poll at the time that’s very clear.
We haven’t denied that National’s lead has increased in the Herald poll, we’ve simply said, as we have for some time, that a couple of points between polls is not meaningful.
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